An indecent proposal for how the Preds could practically be guaranteed to win the Stanley Cup in 2012.

The recent signing of Ilya Kovalchuk has brought the controversy of GMs “gaming” the current salary cap rules in the NHL. There are a few other bad examples of course – the other prime example being Henrik Zetterberg.

If you aren’t familiar, the current NHL collective bargaining agreement which put in place a salary cap for the league uses the average of all the years of a contract to calculate a player’s “cap hit”, that is, how much they count against the salary cap for the term of their contract. This means a player like, say, David Legwand can have a 5 year contract that pays him 5.0, 4.5, 4.5, 4.0, and 3.5 million in each year – yet counts as $4.5mil every year of the deal when it comes to the cap. So the Preds have to cut him a $5mil check in the first year, but he only counts $4.5 mil against the cap.

David Legwand

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With the Preds ship finally righting itself, i don’t want to get too negative, but there’s an issue that is cropping up again that is getting ignored in all the Sully’s-return and 9-goals-in-2-games press and blog coverage: Barry Trotz kills goalies.

In the Preds win against Pittsburgh on Thurs, The Preds gave up 1 goal in the 1st, then gave up a second goal on a fluky bounce when a Preds player tried to clear the puck and it bounced of not one but two of his teammates and went in the net. Was it a goal that could have been avoided – yes – but nothing that goalie Dan Ellis could have done. But what happened next was a bit odd: coach Trotz pulled Ellis in favor of Pekka Rinne. Trotz said in the post-game press conference that he did it to “change our luck” and that he wasn’t unhappy with Ellis’ play. Blogger Brandon Felder asked Ellis about being pulled after the game:

Felder – “Obviously the game wasn’t a great start but it was really bad luck goals. Were you at all frustrated by getting pulled there?”

Dan Ellis – “I think it was stupid. Bottom line. It’s the exact same thing as last year. So yeah I was frustrated. Absolutely. I can’t stop both teams.”

Key words there: “It’s the exact same thing as last year.” What does he mean by that?…

This is something Trotz has done to 3 starting goaltenders in a row. First Vokoun, then Mason, (both pictured at left) and now Ellis – and Danny knows it. At the end of the 06-07 season, Vokoun was frequently pulled in favor of Mason. The team seemed to play better in front of Mason, and it made sense at the time. Vokoun played well, but Mason was deemed ready for prime-time and Vokoun was one of the players lost during Leipold’s march to the sea Minnesota. Then last year (07-08) it was Mason who was frequently pulled and/or benched in favor of the upstart Ellis. The team played well in front of both and Mason was over and over again said to be the #1, but Mason was pulled more and more and Ellis got more and more starts so that by the time the playoffs started, Ellis was the clear #1 for the team. So during the offseason Ellis is signed to a 2-year deal, Mason is traded to St Louis, and Pekka Rinne is brought in to be the backup.

That brings us to this year. Ellis has played well, and while Trotz has shown more restraint when it comes to pulling goalies than in previous years, he has recently started his very bad habit of pulling them to “shake things up” – and not because the goalie is playing poorly.

This messy with goalie’s heads. Dan Ellis knows it. He saw it kill Chris Mason’s game last year, and knows that Trotz is starting down that path again.

Fortunatly i think Ellis is made of a little tougher mental stuff than Chris Mason (as it applies to being a #1 goalie). But Trotz needs to be very careful and do a lot of talking wtih goalie coach Mitch Korn, or he’s going to find himself trading away Ellis, establishing Rinne as the #1, and bringing up yet another young goalie next off-season.

Ok, not for President, but for the all-star team.

The NHL All-Star balloting has begun (yes, it seems early to me, too), and this year the NHL is using a new voting system on the web that lets fans (1) Vote as many times as they want and (2) instantly see a running tally of how many votes each player is getting.

But let’s cut to the chase. If you want to vote as i did, (Arnott, Dumont, Erat, Weber, Suter, Ellis for the West – Timmonen, Hartnell, Vokoun for the East) then just click on the button below .

You can check the current standings here.

Vegas has spoken and have ranked the Predators the 18th most likely team to win the Stanley Cup this year out of the 30 team league. 30/1 odds.

Of course, the Red Wings are roughly 7.5 times more likely to win the Cup than the Preds, but the good news is that they are effectively picking us to make the playoffs (we’re in a 3 way tie for 7-9th most-likely-to-win in the West) and again finish second in the division.

I find it very interesting that they have given the Preds better odds than Chicago and Tampa Bay, both of which did some major retooling in the offseason and i personally would have to handicap at least at the Predators level, especially Chicago. I’m also a little surprised to be put at parity with Calgary, which to me looked to have a strong off-season and looks loaded to at least make a lot of noise this season.

Probably the most surprising to me about this list is that the East is given much better odds overall (though of course no one approaches the Wings odds). 10 of the top 16 odds are given to teams from the East. I just really find it odd that they would give Carolina odds that good, or teams like Calgary odds that low. On a team-by-team basis nothing seems too far off, but most of the talk i hear is that the West is deeper and stronger than the East (though the gap is closing), but this chart doesn’t appear to support that theory.

We shall see…

I looks like everyone else is chiming in with what they think the Predators should do with the open roster spots, so i figured it was time for me to cast my vote.

The discussions center around whether the Preds should sign a big name free-agent (Sundin), mid-level veteran talent (Parrish), or just go with the prospects we have in our system (Hornqvist, Jones, etc).

Moy vote: I think the Preds should go with the young talent. Don’t spend a dime more than you have to on the roster this year. Invest the money in the marketing, hype these youngsters and most importantly, pick a personality on a long contract to build the fans around (Dumont, Weber, or Erat seem logical).

Some are saying the team can’t afford to take a year off – that from the financial and fan-base building point of view we can’t afford to go a year without making the playoffs and being competitive. But i think history proves that wrong. The Preds best attended season was 2001, when the team was well below .500, and wouldn’t see the playoffs for years to come. Likewise the Blackhawks and Capitals have proved that a well marketed, unbalanced team with just a few talented players can draw crowds and attention, win or lose.

As much as i am a Preds fan and want few things more than seeing Lord Stanley’s cup hoisted at the Sommet Center, the one thing i might want more is the promise the the team will be here for my kids to enjoy in 10-15-20 years. What do we need to ensure that? A profitable team and butts in the seats.

News flash: Crowds don’t follow wins. They follow stars, excitement, and only then, yes…playoffs and championships. Over and over again teams in the NBA and NHL have proved that stars and hype fill arenas and sell TV ads. Period. If those stars make it to the playoffs, so much the better.

So i think the Preds options are one of two things*: Either do another roster purge and sign Mats Sundin or trade for Evgeni Malkin, or stay low with the roster we have and do the best we can to hype the young talent – and don’t worry about our record. Win where we can, but by the half-way point if we aren’t in the playoff hunt – tank. Go for the draft spots and go for broke next year.

Balanced, above average players great for fantasy rosters and winning hockey games, but they don’t sell tickets. We need hype, we need tickets, and we need them this year and next.

*Obviously i don’t think the Preds are going to go with either of these routes exactly, and I’m not sure if i was Davids Freeman & Poile that i would have the guts to actually do either option – but if i was a high-priced consultant brought in to give my completly uneducated opinion, this is what i’d say.

Update-
To put this more clearly (thank you JC for helping me get to this point of clarity in my argument): For this team right now, $1mil spent in advertising gets them a decent bump in attendance. $1mil spent on the salary gets them…? At best another point or two in the standings? This team isn’t going to be significantly better and their playoff chances will not improve that much with ANY player they could sign (even with $10mil a year for Sundin). So don’t bother. The team as it is right now will be competative and entertaining enough.

Take a “building year” on the ice to develop young talent that has been stuck in Milwalkee and Europe for too long, while pumping big dollars into marketing. Then next year, with your nice, shiny high draft pick thanks to a bad record, you’ll have a marketable star (who cares if they are really game-changing, Stamkos is selling tickets in Tampa Bay and he’s yet to step on the ice for them) at rookie-discount pricing who you can hype the snot out of.

The Preds have had teams in the past that were successful on the ice but didn’t have any mega-stars that were well marketed. They went strong into the playoffs, then fizzled – and never drew huge crowds until the very end of the season and playoffs, which is something Nashville has always done. What they need is someone that a marketing effort can use to get people into the seats while football season is in full swing. Invest in marketing and hope for a great draft pick.

Oh – and i don’t care if he’s horrible – get Blake Geoffrion playing at the NHL level as soon as possible. Local boy makes good is a great story for the news.

Much has been made about the Tennessean article from Sunday which detailed Boots Del Biaggio’s plans for the Predators. Much of the media is talking about how its clear that there was (is?) a plan to move the Predators out of Nashville. Forechecker highlighted that Boots was pointing to expected expansion revenues in the coming years.

But here’s the thing people: This wasn’t created in a void. This PowerPoint deck that was somehow acquired by a Tennessean reporter (Kudos by the way, for the rare bit of good investigative reporting) was made by Del Biaggio specifically to present to possible investors in his NHL ventures. It was designed to make it look like he would soon be able to take control of the Predators, and that they would have a guaranteed revenue boost in a few years.

Del Biaggio made a living LYING to investors. That’s what he did. He (apparently) went through he process of forging bank documents to show that funds were his that never were in order to secure loans. Do you seriously think that stretching figures and facts on a PowerPoint presentation is beyond this guy?

I’m not saying the Predators will be up with the Leafs in revenues this year. I know the franchise has a tough fight ahead. But i am very surprised that no one is questioning the information. I don’t blame the Tennessean reporting, but cummon people. Consider the source of the stories source.

The Predators just released their pre-season schedule. I’m happy to see us continue the relationship with the Atlanta Thrashers and i hope we get to play them more often in the regular season as well. It’s an obvious friendly-rivalry that would benefit both teams.

Most interesting here are the new rookie games – and one at 11:00am!

My guess is that these are in place of a few scrimmages that would normally happen during camp. No details yet on who will play in the games, but i think it is a safe bet to say the first 2-3 lines of the Predators won’t be there. I doubt if they literally only play based on NHL experience an ‘rookie’ qualifications. The normal pre-season games are at or near full price for tickets. I’ll be curious if the rookie games are open for free to the public, discounted, or something else (especially that mid-morning game). Could be very cool.

With the newly announced signing of Shea Weber (picture right) following quickly behind the signing of Dan Ellis, Ryan Suter, Martin Erat, David Legwand, Jordin Tootoo, etc, etc… Predators GM David Poile has made good on his promise to sign all of the team’s restricted free agents and key personell. The trade of Chris Mason to St Louis also cleared up some salary.

But there is still a bit of a log jam. Taking the numbers from NHLSCAP.com, this appears to be our situation (adding in the Suter, Weber, and Ellis deals that aren’t updated yet).

TOTAL COMMITTED SALARY CAP NUMBER:
$45,791,087
(Note: NHL Salary Cap is about $53mil, but the Predators are not expected to spend near the cap limit)

Our salary is already meeting David Freeman’s promise of being the largest in franchise history at over $45mil. A roster full of talent, and as important as anything – we didn’t lose anyone we wanted to keep.

This roster presents a few problems though.

FORWARD
Without even getting into the mess of having no true left wings (not counting Steve Sullivan) and few real natural centers, the team has 11 forwards under contract. Not a lot of room to add/drop, but still a couple of spots to have guys fight over. From last year’s roster we have Martin Gelinas and Jan Hlavac as options. Of course we could also go after a free agent on the market… or dip into the substantial talent we have in the minors. From all accounts Patric Horvqvist and Antti Pihlstrom (pictured at right) are ready for prime time, and Rich Peverly has been up with the big club multiple times in the last two years.

Personally, my vote would be to pull up at least one of those guys – get them working in the NHL. You have the luxury of having two to pick from so if one isn’t working out with an extended stay in Nashville you can swap them.

DEFENSE
Similar problem on defense. Six defensemen locked up, but good talent sitting in the free agent/minor league pool. DeVries is overpaid and Zanon wasn’t great down the stretch but is still a bargain on his entry contract.

Personally, i think Ville Koistinen (pictured right) is responsible for making Zilicky worth keeping, and thus a must-have himself. Those two played great together when paired, especially on the power play. Klein i think is more valuable as a trade asset than on the ice right now. There are others deeper on the depth chart, but room needs to be made in front of them for any of them to see a shot at big league ice time this year.

GOALIE
Not much to say here. Set. Ready. Locked and loaded.

Ellis should be strong, though his one weakness will be his health issues. If the coaches try to push him through 65+ games next year i don’t think he’ll hold up. He had trouble keeping on the weight and only played 44 games last year (at times dropping 10+lbs every time he went on the ice). Rinne has been the ‘goalie of the future’ for a while, so this will be a great chance for him to get a lot of play time without having to carry the franchise on his still-young (but very sizable) shoulders.

What are your thoughts? Do you want the Predators to trade for a big name? Bring up Horvqvist or Pihlstrom? Should they resign Koistinen or Klein?

Good story so far… and next season should be one heck of a ride.

On the eve of the draft, the Preds just traded Chris Mason to the St Louis Blues and signed Dan Ellis. (Tennessean article here).

You have to assume that this means they expect Ellis to be the clear #1 goalie, with Pekka Rinne being the frequent backup, given Ellis’ health problems last year (couldn’t keep any weight on). Mason will logically be Manny Legace’s backup give the year he had last season.

No details on contract length or amount (just that it is “multi-year”) for Ellis, but i have to assume that they are saving money here – certainly over what keeping Mason and Ellis both would have cost.

The Tennessean is reporting that it is a 2-year, $3.5 million deal ($1.5mil first year, $2mil second year – avg of $1.75mil per year for the cap hit). This means a little more budget cleared for signing Weber and hopefully another trade for a nice skilled forward or two to boot. Great opportunity for Ellis to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke and the Preds don’t have to overpay for goaltending.

If i would have guessed they would pull a trade to keep Ellis, i would have thought it would be to trade Rinne – i never dreamed they’d be able to unload Mason, though just a single 4th round pick in this years draft shows his value is far less than the contract. They found someone willing to have a very very high level backup and overpay them. Kudos to Poile.

I also just have to say it is with some sadness that i watch Mason walk away from Nashville. He supported the Preds staying in Nashville as much or more than any other player (certainly was more vocal) and the city owes him for that. See ya Mase. You will be missed. Best of luck in St Louis (unless you’re playing the Preds of course)

The Predators just announced that Martin Erat has signed a 7-year deal worth $31.5 mil. This would keep him here into the 2014-2015 season, one year longer than Legwand‘s deal. Tying up a young core like this is great. Both deals feel a little on the steep side right now, but given the growth, potential, and – more importantly – the rapidly rising salaries around the league, these deals are both going to feel like steals in a few years. Erat will be 33 at the end of the deal, which sounds pretty perfect to me.

Also, if my math is right (and the numbers on NHLnumbers.com are correct), this means that the Predators salary for next year is at approximately $40.4 mil – right at the salary floor for next season. Of course we are still well below the $56mil salary cap, which i don’t think we’ll be too near, despite David Freeman’s promises of spending to win. We still have to sign Ryan Suter and Shea Weber, and hopefully go after a forward or two to replace Gelinas and Hordichuck (who i assume won’t be re-signed). I’m thinking/hoping that Hlavich and Peverly are possibilities, but of course i also have a wish-list of stars that would be great to add. And of course we still have to work out the goalie issue with Mason and Rinne both on contract, but Ellis hanging around as the incumbent starting goalie.

I’m really looking forward to what Poile does the rest of the summer, and i’m glad we’re getting these guys’ contracts out of the way quickly (Erat is still at the World Championships for goodness sake).

Next year should be a good one. Grab your tickets now :-)

UPDATE: Erat’s initial contract has been rejected by the NHL. Apparently the actual contract was loaded too heavily in some years and too lightly in others. My understanding is that for salary cap purposes, the total deal value is divided by the number of years to just give an average to be used for cap calculations – so i’m not sure why they made the contract this wonky. According to TSN, the original contract was arranged something like this:

08-09 – 3.50 NHL
09-10 – 5.25 NHL
10-11 – 5.25 NHL
11-12 – 6.00 NHL
12-13 – 5.50 NHL
13-14 – 3.50 NHL
14-15 – 2.50 NHL

Of course the eventual deal will be re-jigged and approved i’m sure. Strange that 1) it was this unbalanced to start with 2) the Predators weren’t careful enough to know the NHL rules about salaries.

The other very interesting fact that came out is that apparently Erat has a “No Move Clause” go into effect in July 2009. That means that Erat cannot be traded, waived for a claim by another team, or assigned to the minors without his consent – even more strict than just a No Trade Clause. Wow. That i know of, the only other such clause Nashville has ever handed out was a NTC on Zidlicky’s much shorter contract. Very interesting indeed.

David Freeman, the leader of the Predators new ownership group, just did a little Q&A with the official Preds website (which i have to say has been coming along nicely in terms of content and quality). Not too much there that was amazing, but a few quotes and observations to point out:

First and foremost i’m loving the implications in this quote:

NP.com: Have you starting planning the budget for next season?
DF: Sure. Yes. Strategically it’s probably not good for us to talk about that publicly for competitive reasons. Our budget will be significantly higher than it was this year. In fact, I’m quite certain we will spend more on payroll next year than at any time in the history of the club. We’re that committed to building this team right back up.

Did you catch that? “we will spend more on payroll next year than at any time in the history of the club“. Wow. That’s saying something!

I just got through saying on a HockeyBuzz discussion about Shea Weber’s chances of resigning with the Preds, that i was nervous about our ability to sign Shea. If projects are correct that he could command $7mil a year, then i assumed that meant he would be gone. The largest contract (that i know of) that the Preds have ever signed anyone to was Vokoun’s contract when we resigned him in the middle of last year to a 4-year, $22.8mil deal that will max-out and pay him $6.3mil in the final year… and we traded him and that contract away at the end of the year when Leipold put the team on the salary floor*. With that in mind, signing a d-man to a $7mil per year contract seems pretty out of character, and possibly out of reach. I think we could count on a small amount of home-town discount from Shea, so that together with this comment from Freeman makes me a lot more hopeful about our chances of keeping him, Erat, and other restricted free agents at the end of this year.

*Side comment about Craig Leipold: I think Leipold clearly had the pockets to keep the Preds above the salary floor, and he was clearly intent on buying the Wild before he’d even sold the Predators. Since he was about to move to another Western Conference team, why not do massive damage to the franchise you’re about to turn around and face 4 times a year. It would be the equivalent of a player who had just been traded setting fire to the equipment truck on your way to the airport. — I’m glad Leipold brought hockey to Nashville, but i think what he did to the franchise in the last year borders on unethical business practice. Not a fan personally.

Other thoughts on the interview…

Freeman talks quite a bit about his personal relationship to the team and hockey, etc. While talking about his experience on Trade Deadline Day and how his kids are with the team, etc…you get a real sense that this is still a project for the city, and a logical business decision. He is not passionate about hockey and is still fresh into becoming a fan, but is getting there.

Specifically, when asked about Nashville as a hockey market, the owner of the franchise replied:

I don’t know that I’m in a position to answer that question. Time will tell. But I think that there’s obviously a much greater awareness of the team and what the team means to the city. Even for those who might not have been hockey fans in the past – and maybe they’re still not – but I think there’s a huge awareness of the team and what it means to the city. Sometimes you don’t know what you’ve got until you almost lost it. I think that definitely applies in this situation.

He also said that he doesn’t talk about the team much with his kids, but that his kids get most of the news about the team from their friends. He said that they are enjoying going to games and “have become big fans very quickly, just like I have.” While i certainly appreciate the honesty, i would love for him to have gushed about how much he loves the game and doesn’t know how he missed how great it was for so long, and that once more people in Nashville are exposed to hockey that ‘the most passionate fans in sports’ (as 104.5 calls Nashville) will turn to hockey with the same zeal they give to football. But i guess that’s me.

All in all it’s a good interview and worth checking out. I think Freeman is just an understated, shy guy. He’s still getting used to giving interviews and isn’t much of a marketer himself. Good news is that he’s hiring people who do, and the marketing and sponsorships are getting much much better.

Toronto Globe and Mail writer James Mirtle just posted a good summary on his blog of how the NHL’s draft lottery works. It isn’t terribly different from the way the NBA’s lottery works if you are familiar with that method.

Basically, the 14 teams that don’t make the playoffs are put into the lottery drawing to arrange their draft order (This is done so that the worst team in the league doesn’t automatically get the #1 pick, which would cause teams to intentionally lose at the end of a year). It is a little complicated in that no team can move down more than one spot from where they “should” be, and no team can move up more than 4 spots.

As of right now for instance, the Predators are just out of the playoffs and would be the last team in the lottery (#14). At best we could move up to pick #10, but couldn’t do worse than #14.

But the best part for Preds fans? Everyone remember that trade we made with Florida for Tomas Vokoun that everyone was so upset about? “We gave up Vokoun and didn’t get anything in return!” It was a pure salary dump, meant to unload Vokoun’s big contract and get the team on the salary cap floor. Well, we got Florida’s second round pick last year, and their first and second round picks this year. Where is Florida in the lottery at this point? 3rd from the last! Meaning that the Preds (who own Florida’s first pick) have a 14.2% chance of getting the #1 pick in the draft, and it isn’t too inconceivable to think that we could end up with the #1, #10, #31, #40 (and more) picks. The worse Florida finishes, the better the Preds chances of ending up with the #1 pick.

This draft is largely considered one of the deepest and most talented in years (see a mock draft here), and Poile has proved himself as a fabulous GM, especially when it comes to drafting.

I’d love to make the playoffs this year, and go deep – heck, win it all – but the great thing is that as good as we do, we can still improve our position in the draft with every loss Florida racks up.

If Vokoun really loves his old team so much, i wonder if he’ll let a few weak ones through the wickets for us… :-)

A while back I was ranting against the NHL’s policy of letting the injury determine the penalty handed out. Well, it looks like they finally realized that in some cases that just can’t apply. While there hasn’t been any formal retraction of this policy, there have been a few higher profile cases lately where penalties and suspensions were obviously given out for the severity of the penalty, not the injury (like Scott Nichols’ 5-game suspension for a stupid cross-check that caused only a nosebleed).

Best case yet is Chris Simon’s record breaking 30-game suspension (breaking his own record 25-game suspension from last year). He intentionally stomped on the foot of Jarkko Ruutu (with a sharp skate blade on his foot, remember) while Ruutu was down. Miraculously Ruutu was not injured at all on the play, but he could have been seriously. The NHL’s statement says it best:

“While fortunate, Mr. Ruutu suffered no serious injury as a result of Chris Simon’s actions, the deliberate act of kicking an opponent with a skate blade, especially when that opponent is in a vulnerable position, is and always has been a repugnant and totally unacceptable act in the game of hockey.”

That’s two good suspensions in a row for unacceptable behavior. Let’s hope this translates to the minor/double-minor/major calls on the ice for an otherwise decent check or a minor trip that turns into a fluke injury.

In more Preds minor league/prospect news, Eklund is “reporting” that we just signed our draft pick Jonathan Blum to a three year deal. Blum was our first round pick last year (23rd overall), and is yet another strong defensive prospect. He’s another one “puck-moving” defensmen (as opposed to the ones that sit on the puck?) with a penchant for offense. Right now he’s just 160lbs, but he stands 6’0″ and is just 18 years old, so hopefully he’ll fill out and become a more physical presence. He’s from Long Beach, CA (that’s California, not Canada), a great hockey town (that’s for you, Mirtle). He’s been playing in Vancouver of the WHL for a couple of years.

Good stuff.

The Preds just called up forward Antti Pihlstrom from the Admirals. That’s right. The man/boy with the best mullet in camp this summer (pictured at right), who was a star in Finland last year, has been called up. My big question: is this a reaction to the poor play of our current players? An offensive shot in the arm? Or is this just a chance for Antti (to be called “Pihlly”?) to sit on the bench and be ready in case someone else falls victim to the flu? Or worst of all, is Erat out for a while?

There has been some discussion around the forums and other blogs lately that since Sully will be gone for a while, the Preds need an offensive shot in the arm. A trade or some other shakeup to get things going.

Pihlstrom has been having a very strong year in Milwalkee and from what i saw at camp, is a Radulov-esque offensive firecracker. High energy, shoot first attitude, but not as reckless as Hornqvist still looks. The fact that they are calling up Pihlstrom and not Peverly or other forwards with more NHL experience tells me that Poile is looking for production and spark, not just safe reliability.

I like it :-)

Just wanted to post a quick update on my Fantasy Hockey league.

Pulled a quick stats analysis for everyone. Basically this shows the totals for all stat categories for everyone currently on all rosters (averages, not totals for the GAA and SV% categories). Just a quick, sloppy view of where everyone’s strengths and weaknesses are. Of course, Starcats and Rebel Mandos are both carrying 4 goalies and Ice Holes just has 2, so the win totals are a little skewed, but this gives the general idea.

Should point out the need for a few trades… hum?

Full sheet available here if this view doesn’t work for you.

Just a reminder, here’s the cast of players:

Rebel Mandos: Kevin Peters
Ice Holes: Paul McCann
Novice — Fresh Meat: Kevin Hicks
Fab Forecheckers: Dirk Hoag (aka “The Forechecker“>
Preds: Paul Nicholson (me!)
Disastros: David Carlson
PuckNtheMouth: Brandon Felder
PredHeads: Ryan Cassell
Nashvegas Starcats: Christy Nicholson (aka HockeyWife)
Old School Blues: Gary Nicholson

Just wanted to point everyone over to Forechecker, who just posted a great analysis of the Preds first 1/4 of a season.

(I just realized the title of this post could be totally misinterpreted a very pessimistic post. I hope no one thinks that. I think we’re doing really well, actually.)

That is all.

Preds were absolutely robbed tonight. The Wings played well, but that game should have been 4-2 Preds. 2 goals taken off the boards just kills ya. The refs just blew it. As my dad said: “Isn’t the NHL supposed to be the league with the best replay officiating options, that never misses a scoring call?” But they blew the plays dead not once, but twice, right as the Preds scored. Either of those goals count, and the game is very, very different.

Best part: we made it a game anyway. The game was 2-0 and the Wings were clearly satisfied with letting that be the final score. I don’t think anyone would have been surprised if the Preds were as well, especially with plenty of excuses to make for how they should have won. But they played through it and stayed after it and played harder in the third than in the first, which is hard to do against Detroit. Shows a lot of character and the type that this team is absolutely going to need if they are to have any success. We’ll be coming from behind far more this year than we did last.

Mason was fabulous in the game, but looked slow (tired) in the shoot out. Before the game i told my wife that i’d almost rather see a 1-0 or 2-1 loss than a 7-5 win. I wanted to see a good, responsible, disciplined hockey game and that’s what we got the vast majority of the time. Mason was outstanding in net all night, and i think that the game was a solid boost in confidence he needed. I just hope he doesn’t take the shootout loss too hard and too personally. He could have done better in the shootout, but after facing 45 shots, killing off a 4-3 through overtime, and with Holmstrom logging as much time in the crease as Mason through the game, i don’t blame him for being less than sharp by the time the shootout came around.
But hey, i’ll take the point for OT.

The Preds game last night was certainly a bit better. Still quite a bit of sloppy play, especially late in the 1st. Still a ton of chances left lying on the doorstep because no one was at home in front of the net. Plenty more occasions where we had great chances with the puck up front, but couldn’t finish (pictured at the right). I’ll grant you, Hedberg played well, but not amazing. We are still just not finishing the way a winning team should.

But so much was improved.

The defense was checking hard (Hamuis was involved in more than one hard hitting, body sacrificing play, which i haven’t seen from him as much). I especially loved Hammer’s check at the blue-line (pictured at left). That’s building a wall!

I also loved how Erat was playing with Dumont and Arnott. Not just that he was playing with them, which i thought a good combo, but the way he was playing. More than once i thought it was Legwand out there, the way he was playing an aggressive but smart, positional forecheck. If he’d just put that puck in the net instead of off the post, i think everyone would be calling him out for a great game as well as Toots and Smithson, who played like first-liners…well, up against the sieve-like 2nd and 3rd Atlanta defensive pairings. But hey, we’ll take it!

Win is a win. It felt great.

Ellis played really well, but i think more importantly, the team played better in front of him. Just like they used to do with Mason compared to Vokoun last year, the team seemed to play more intelligent, especially on defense, when playing in front of “the backup”. It’s amazing how much of it is still mental for this team. I do not envy Trotz the decision of going with Ellis (who is confident and hot) or Mason (get his confidence back and fulfill the “Mason vs Vokoun” billing for the big game) for the game against Florida.

Last note about the on-ice product:
We have two versions of the Predators. One that wins and wins big, and one that loses and loses big.

Our total Goals For / Goals Against per game for the year is 2.3 / 3.3. Doesn’t look too horrible and is about what you’d expect (or better) from a team that is 3-6-0. However, if you check our GF/GA per game for wins, it is 4/0.3. That is dominant hockey! We’ve only allowed 1 goal in our 3 wins. That’s great! Trouble is our losses. GF/GA per game is 1.5/4.8 there. Ouch. We’re giving up nearly 5 goals a game in our losses.

Normally i would look at those stats and say they are indicative of a young, inexperienced team. But we’re supposed to have more age and experience this year than last. What gives? Also, we supposedly got bigger and stronger during the off-season. But we still rank 27th out of 30th in the league in overall size (height/weight). That isn’t going to get it done if we’re trying to play more physical, grind-style hockey this year.

What is not fine is that the crew i called out for doing such a good job of paying attention to aspect ratios has now either been replaced or gotten dumb. All the videos all night were stretched to fill the width of the screen. Now, i know there are a lot of bumpkins out there that probably complain about “those black bars at the side of the screen, it ain’t workin’ right”. But now the videos look bad. Those bumpkins can watch Seinfeld re-runs in ‘fat’ stretch mode all they want on their $899 plasma’s at home, but please don’t make me watch it that way at the arena. Especially for videos that are actually wide-aspect to begin with (like movie clips) – crop the videos! Don’t just stretch them so we have a fat Gnash and a tiny little strip of Matthew Broderick in the middle of black bars. Cummon people, this is your job and i can do it better as a hobby. If you need me to do it for you, send me the videos at my gmail account and i’d be glad to reformat them to 16:9 for you with the correct cropping/scaling so that everything looks nice.

Also, we apparently are losing sponsors right and left. We’ve picked up a few (most notably the Signature Tower), but we’ve also lost quite a few. It is no longer the “Fantastik Fan of the Game” it is the “fan of the night”. No longer is the second Zamboni painted like Scrubbing Bubbles – now it’s just a Predator Zamboni. We no longer have the “Windex Seats on the Glass” (movin’ on up!) where they took people from the upper decks to seats on the glass. Most importantly, the free tacos from Taco Bell at the 5-goal mark are gone! (thanks to HordyHsrHar for the reminder- i knew i left something out!) I’ve also listened to several games that were on Lightning 100 with nothing but music during ‘commerical’ breaks. They didn’t have commercials to fill the air time. Partially i blame that on Lightning 100′s sales department, but it proves there is still not a line of sponsors waiting to be associated with the Preds. Not a good sign and something that needs to be turned around quickly.

There is also just no promotion or advertising off the ice going on at all. I overheard someone walking down the hall at work the other day asking someone if they were going to the Preds game Thurs. They replied “Nah. I thought they were going to move in 6 months anyway, weren’t they?” This team is in desperate need of off-ice support and a major PR campaign, but there is no way Leipold is putting another dime into this team, on the ice or off. Contract/negotiation periods aside, this team needs new owners who can come in tell the city that the Preds are here, they are staying, and they are exciting and worth coming to see. Not just “worth supporting” like something on welfare, but worth spending money on as great family entertainment.

My thoughts on the small bit of training camp i got to see on Friday (just session 2):

• Players were skating hard out there. Even captain Jason Arnott hit the deck more than once as things got physical and fast-paced out there. I think he was skating harder than almost anyone else on the ice. He was talking with other players, but wasn’t goofing around as much as i saw him doing it last year. He was there to lead. The Captain Has Arrived. Love it.
• Nolan Yonkman doesn’t stand out as the beast he did last year. I think he may have trimmed down and gotten a little faster, but i think it’s mostly that this team is much, much bigger overall than last year’s squad.
• Barry Trotz is much grayer this year. Not sure if he went gray over the summer, or just stopped using Just For Men. Probably a combination. Either way, he somehow looks both tougher and wiser. Good leader for a more blue-collar* scrappy, physical team.
• I agree with what has been said elsewhere. We have some canons on our team. Tootoo, Weber, and Radulov were shooting often and shooting hard.
• Rinne impressed me. Not that i am an ultimate judge of goalie talent, but he was moving quick, confidently, and was rarely out of position. I was concerned that he would be rusty given how little he has played over the last year, but he looked good. We’ll see how he looks in a game or even scrimmage, but i’m already feeling better about our backup situation.

Pictures are uploading now, video to come soon.

Lots more pictures and videos to come. I’m also going to the session tomorrow and am going to do everything i can to catch the scrimmage. Ah…to see something even resembling a hockey game again! Game On!

* Note to sports writers about the term “blue collar”. Do you know any hockey teams that wouldn’t describe themselves as a “blue collar” or as a “lunch pail” team? I don’t think there are a lot of hockey teams vying for the title of “most likely to try to avoid sweating”, “pampered”, or even “smarter not harder”. Being tough and hard-working is kinda the over-all ethic of pro-sports in general and particularly hockey right? I think more specific terms like “scrappy”, “efficient”, or “punishing” could apply in some cases, but “blue collar” is by far the most overused description i’ve been reading in pre-season write-ups around the league. Cut it out.

According to the news feed from the Predators site, Jason Arnott is to be named captain of the Preds at a news conference this afternoon. Like the choice. Dumont and Sully get the “A’s”. Good stuff. Good stuff all around.

And the Predators are going to be raising individual ticket prices, pretty significantly.

It has been a busy week for the Predators, though most of it is behind the scenes.

The quick points:

• Preds signed ‘journeyman’ Josh Langfeld. He has been compared to a Fiddler-style player that still has potential. Trotz stated earlier this week that they are looking to shore up their depth at forward, especially when it comes to depth beyond the NHL level. This fits that category well.
• The local potential-ownership group has moved several steps closer to closing the deal to purchase the team. The last of the paperwork has been signed between the new group and Craig Leipold, meaning all that is left is for the NHL Board of Governors (owners) to vote and approve (which they are expected to do)…and of course the local group still has to renegotiate the lease terms with Metro Nashville government to make the needed changes in the lease in order to secure the remainder of their financing.
• The Predators crossed the 9,000 season ticket mark earlier this week. That is 9,000 full-season tickets, or full-season equivalents (in other words, probably several thousand full-season tickets, and many thousand more half-season and quarter-season packages). The team has yet to start selling individual game tickets, and camp hasn’t even started (so media coverage hasn’t really ramped up yet). Last year the team ended up the year at 8,758 full season tickets (or equivalents). That means assuming ticket sales for individual games doesn’t go down, the team will more than make-up the roughly180 seats per game they fell short of the 14,000 needed to lock the team here. Individual ticket sales start Sept 15th, and season ticket sales always go up as the year progresses. These numbers are very very encouraging.
• FSN South announced which games they will be broadcasting. 55 games for the year over the regular season. Pretty good spread throughout the season. Nothing noted so far as to which of the games will be available in HD, though my hope is all of them… we’ll see. I’d love to have an option of a local terrestrial broadcast station pickup at least a few of the extra games (especially some of the away games) but i guess we’re still not there yet. NBC has an option to have us on against the Red Wings twice, so those two Red Wings games aren’t on FSN. I’m not sure if FSN gets to pickup the games in the event NBC chooses not to broadcast them. We’ll also be missing at least one game against the Stanley Cup Champion Ducks. Looking up sports bars with Center Ice…

Ok – so that pretty much covers the news that you’ve probably seen or heard about in the paper. Now for the update of the other stuff you probably missed:

The Nashville Post reported yesterday that the Preds have picked up another corporate sponsor. This one i’m really excited about. Not only are the a corporate sponsor in terms of helping give the team financial support – their main support is actually in discounted services they are providing. Dolphini Networks, based in the Cummings Station building just down the street from the Sommet Center, is a high-tech media services company. Among other things, they will be running a special fiber-optic backbone from their offices to the arena. This will allow them to “provide the team with Internet support, voice over Internet protocol services and, down the road, wireless simulcast of games within the building.”

This is where it gets good: that later feature is described as one that will “allow fans to receive feeds from cameras following their favorite players.” Are you freaking kidding me?!?! They’ll have camera’s just trained on each individual player on the ice. You can focus on Mason all the way in on a breakaway, or watch Leggy with his great back checking that is so rarely on camera. I just hope they allow fans to get access to this data at a later time, through a subscription internet site perhaps.

1. Peter Forsberg (Nash, Ottawa, Col, Edm, Van, Phi)
5. Mike Johnson (Nashville, Washington, Phoenix)
13. Eric Lindros (retire or Calgary, Vancouver, Nashville)

That’s right, Eric Lindros is now apparently a possibility for Nashville. Uh huh. Right. Only thing that makes sense about that to me is as a replacement for Sullivan. Anyway…

Throwing a little speculation out there of my own: ESPN’s (known for great hockey coverage of course) Scott Burnside wrote an interesting article about Curtis Joseph’s desire to continue to play in the NHL. He doesn’t want to follow Eddie Belfor to play overseas. Fine. Preds need a good, experienced backup behind Mason. I’ll take CuJo. Of course we couldn’t and wouldn’t pay him anywhere near the $2mil he made with Phoenix last year, but maybe we wouldn’t have to. Having Pekka Rinne as our only backup, as solid as he looks in the minors, just makes me nervous.

Anyway…

Last little jab: If the Predators did this, i guarantee people up in Detroit would be using it as an example of how Nashville is a failure as a hockey club. Cities are different. They don’t always compare exactly. And everyone – even the great Hockeytown – has to resort to unusual methods to fill seats on occasion. Personally i think it’s a great promo and with Detroit luck in filling seats (just not filling nets).

Oh – last shot – looks like we might be getting NHL games live online next year (finally!). For those like myself who don’t have cable but do have broadband (all 4 of us) this will be awesome!

Update: New Preds jerseys go on sale Sept 15th (same as individual game tickets) at the Preds Pro Shop at the Sommet Center. Looks like they will be available elsewhere (Sports Seasons, etc) on Sept 22nd-ish.

Predators bloggers are still buzzing about the Predators lease news. Forechecker points out that the Chamber of Commerce just voted unanimously to endorse the changes being suggested by the local ownership group to the lease. It looks like a binding agreement is just around the corner as well.

In other Preds news: Steve Sullivan was apparently worse off than we thought and just had his second back surgery of the summer. He will be out at least 3 months, which means he’ll miss all of camp and pre-season, as well as at least a few games of the regular season. Probably coming back around the time we play Tomas Vokoun and the Panthers… Unless by 3 months they mean the first three months of the season… I’m not clear on that yet. I agree with Forechecker. Pressure just went on Radulov, Dumont, Arnott, and Erat to produce offensively.

For those that don’t know, HockeyBuzz (Eklund‘s place) has a new blogger for the Predators. Paul McCann will still be blogging (thank God) but he is moving to a more general role. The new guy is, well, new. He’s very young and writes like it. But he is enthusiastic and hopefully will grow in to the role soon.

His first post was about the captaincy of the Predators. Who should or shouldn’t take the reigns since Captain Kimmo and Kariya (who was an alternate on occasion) left.

He puts up Sullivan (C), Arnott (A), and Weber Dumont (A) as nominations. With Weber, Suter, and Radulov as possibilities. Here was my response:

First it has to be said that i hate that Mason can’t wear an ‘A’ at least… He hasn’t played as much but he has been and is going to be the emotional core of this team.

Anyway, Sully gets the ‘C’ in a perfect world, but my concern there is health. A captain in a luxury suite nursing his back isn’t much of a captain. If i’m Trotz, i think about giving him an ‘A’ again and letting him lead when he’s there. If his back is proven strong enough in camp, then perhaps give him the ‘C’, but Trotz already said he wants leadership named before camp even starts. His back is just so iffy at this point…

If not Sully, then Arnott. Of course if he’s not ‘C’ then ‘A’. That’s a given.

As for the other alternate, Weber could be good, though i’m not sure if he or Suter are there yet. They’ll have enough filling Kimmo skates on the ice. I want them to concentrate on their play. Ice time is going way up for those two (was already high). They wouldn’t be bad choices…just not sure.

No way Radulov gets anywhere near leadership. He’ll be a scorer, but he has a lot of maturing to do. He was something of a goof-ball last season. Not that i minded, but he isn’t a leader. Not to mention there is a decent amount of language barrier still there, if interviews last year were any indication. Great player. I’d pick him to lead the team in goals and probably scoring, but no way he’s leadership.

I would think about players like Zanon and Fiddler personally. They aren’t going to be on any all-star teams, but that isn’t the point of a captain. They are veterans, respected, responsible, reliable on and off the ice… Those are the characteristics i look for in leadership. Many teams have strong leading captains who aren’t on-ice producers. I think they could be similar to a Greg Johnson, etc. Suter and/or Weber could be the same, but i just don’t see players that young in leadership on a team that actually got older (on average) during the off-season, not younger.

Predators owner-to-be William “Boots” Del Biaggio may have just given himself a rough start with Nashville fans, some of who are already worried that he just wants to take the team to Kansas City.

The San Jose Mercury News interviewed Del Biaggio for an article on the Sharks ownership changes this off-season. He gave them some interesting quotes (taken totally out of context i’m sure):

[The Sharks] lost money, in spite of the new NHL labor agreement. It makes you wonder if this was why Del Biaggio evacuated. Not at all, Del Biaggio said. Reached by phone this week, he sounded like a kid with a new toy.…
“I’ve just been really looking to become a larger owner of a team in the last few years,” Del Biaggio said. “It’s a turnaround situation in Nashville. And I’m going to have a much larger say in the hockey operations there. I’m excited.”

When asked if he was unhappy in San Jose:

“I have no issues here in San Jose. I loved being an owner of the Sharks. It’s a first-class operation, and Greg Jamison is a first-class executive. I just have a desire to be a majority owner of an NHL team one day. But I’m still living here. I’m not moving. We have season tickets behind the Sharks bench. Our son plays for the Junior Sharks squirt team. When Nashville comes in to play the Sharks this season, I’m sure he’ll be wearing his Sharks jersey.”

So, this brings up an interesting question: How effective can you be as an owner if you’re still a season ticket-holding fan of a rival of your own franchise?

I don’t mean to blow this out of proportion. It was an interview given to the San Jose paper. But still…telling Nashville fans that you aren’t moving from San Jose, will continue to attend Sharks games from behind the bench, and your kid will be wearing Sharks jerseys?

Not exactly a great start to the new relationship of a group of fans that are admittedly a little fragile and shaken from this off-season to begin with.

Way back when the Predators traded for Peter Forsberg, i made the argument that the trade made sense, if for no other reason, than from a financial point of view. Regardless of how much his contract cost, Forsberg paid for himself in extra jersey (sweaters for all you old-school hockey fans) and ticket sales.

I was made fun of.
I was ridiculed.
I was right.

Check out this press release from NHL.com today.
The important parts: The Predators experienced 425% year-over-year growth in merchandise sales (a growth rate second only to Buffalo’s gaudy 746%). And Peter Forsberg’s jersey was the 6th most popular sold, behind only Sidney Crosby and collection of Buffalo Sabres.

Two snide remarks to make here:

1. I think the Predators had an unfair advantage in these numbers. Everyone had to buy their Forsberg jerseys from NHL.com because there are only like 4 places in Nashville that carry Predators jerseys. The support is there…when are the Predators going to get a licensing deal with Academy or Wal-Mart in the area? Where is “the official retailer for the Nashville Predators”?
2. I don’t think it is fair for Buffalo to mandate a Sabres jersey as part of their standard school attire, which is clearly what happened last year.

So yes, i am back to harping on the marketing group for the Preds. I really hope that the new ownership group has better marketing sense and better local business connections. Maybe Leipold didn’t notice that you couldn’t find a Predators t-shirt at Target because he didn’t live here. Hopefully these guys can fix that.

Predators have signed winger Martin Gelinas to a 1-year $1.25 million deal. (He’s coming off a 2-year $1.9mil deal with Florida).

Gelinas is coming to us from the Florida Panthers.
Last year he had 14 goals, 30 assists, (for 44 points) was +7 and had only 36 penalty minutes in all 82 games for the Panthers (averaged 13+ minutes of ice time last year). Looks like a good 2nd-3rd line winger and a penalty killer. Possibly a replacement for Scott Hartnell of sorts. Not a huge player (5-11, 202), but we already picked up size elsewhere this off-season.

He’s also an experienced veteran. At 37, he’s the oldest player on the Predators roster and has been playing professional hockey for longer than Radulov has been on the planet. He played for the Oilers, Nordiques, Canucks, Hurricanes, Flames, and Panthers. his peak year was in 96-97 when he finished with 68 points (35 goals, 33 assists). But he has been a consistent performer through his career, and it looks like recently he’s turned himself into a reliable two-way player, finishing with an average of 42 points and +8 over the last 5 years.

This signing uses up most of the salary-floor space we had left so i think Eklund’s newly posted update (this morning) of Foppa-to-Nashville possibilities are looking unlikely. Assuming that thePredators stay on the salary-floor, which i think is likely, at least until we get in to the season and see how the team and ticket sales are going…or if the sale of the team goes through and the new ownership (whoever it is) has money to spend.

The Forechecker and Paul McCann have posted their thoughts as well. Forechecker has some interesting looks at our possible line-ups for next year too.

Hockey trivia – the Predators site is listing Gelinas as one of the players traded to Edmonton from LA as a prospect for Wayne Gretzky back in 1988.

Eklund just posted an updated version of his list of available free agents (ranked in order) and their possible destinations. As stated previously, the only player listed a few weeks ago was Jeremy Roenick.

Here’s our presence on the list now (with other possible destinations):

1. Peter Forsberg (Nashville, Vancouver, Detroit, Philadelphia)
21. Jan Bulis (Columbus, Nashville, Pittsburgh, Wash)
31. Jeremy Roenick (Toronto, Nashville, Ottawa)
32. Mike Johnson (Nashville,Phoenix, NYI, NJ)

It is very interesting of course to see Peter Forsberg added to the list. We have a good bit of room left to spend to get to the salary-cap floor, and supposedly Foppa really liked it here. Whether or not he’d give us another shot is another issue. He would be a huge boost to the team, both for fan draw and marketing, and would still be able to contribute on-ice as well (though i would pencil him in for only 50-games tops with his ongoing foot problems).

Jeremy Roenick i’ve already talked about.

Jan Bulis and Mike Johnson…interesting, but nothing special. These guys are more 3rd/4th line fodder (unless they have a breakout year) but do provide more good size (6’0″ and 6’2″).

I’m just happy to see us back on the shoppers list. Best of all, i still trust David Poile to put together the best possible team given his financial pressure.

It is a testament to his skills and deal structuring that we are still not to the cap floor yet and we are putting a team on the ice with Steve Sullivan, Jason Arnott, JP Dumont, Alexander Radulov, David Legwand, and Martin Erat up front and Zidlicky, Weber, Suter, Zanon, and Hamuis on defense – and a goalie that finished # 2 in the league in save percentage and 12th in shutouts, 10th in goals against.

All that for less than the salary floor.
He gets my (totally unbiased) vote for GM of the year if we get close to the playoffs.